How child survival changed in six Southern African countries

The scale of the decline depended on the starting point

Mozambique’s central estimate fell from 164.6 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 59.4 in 2024. Zambia fell from 151.8 to 48.4. Those are reductions of 105.2 and 103.4 deaths per 1,000, respectively. The original risks differed, so a comparison of proportional change gives a separate perspective. Source 1 Source 3

South Africa’s series changed direction after 2020

South Africa’s annual estimates declined from 71.4 per 1,000 in 2000 to 33.9 in 2020. The 2024 estimate was 35.1. The size and timing of that increase are visible in the trend, while health and mortality data by cause are needed to assess what drove it. Source 1 Source 3

Rates measure risk per birth

The under-five mortality rate estimates the probability of dying before age five. A rate of 60 per 1,000 is about a 6% risk under the mortality conditions in the estimate. Comparing total deaths also requires the number of births and the age structure of the population. Source 1 Source 3

Close ranks deserve careful reading

The 2024 point estimates for Botswana and South Africa were 33.3 and 35.1. Each is an estimate with uncertainty. The UN’s published intervals help distinguish clear differences from very close results. The table keeps the underlying decimal values so readers can examine both the long-run changes and the latest comparisons. Source 1 Source 3

Different ages call for different evidence

Deaths in the first month of life and deaths between ages one and four are both included in the under-five rate. Health planning often uses neonatal and other age-specific figures to identify where survival has improved and where risk remains concentrated. The UN report publishes those measures separately. Source 3

Sources

• UN IGME under-five mortality series via World Bank WDI
• World Bank data API, selected countries and years
• UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, Levels and Trends in Child Mortality