Reported and estimated road deaths in six Southern African countries

The gap between reported and estimated figures varies

Mozambique’s WHO estimate was nearly seven times the reported figure. Botswana’s figures were close at 426 estimated deaths and 413 reported. Both figures help describe the evidence available for the year, with the estimates intended for international comparisons. Source 3 Source 1 Source 7

Population rates can change how the comparison looks

South Africa had the highest estimated count in this group, at 14,528. Namibia’s count was 557, but its rate was 22.0 per 100,000 people, close to South Africa’s 24.5. Rates account for population size, while the number of deaths describes the total toll. Source 4 Source 5

Confidence intervals describe uncertainty in estimates

The WHO profile for Zambia gives a central estimate of 3,338 and an interval from 2,811 to 3,866. Lesotho’s interval runs from 426 to 558 around a central estimate of 492. The interval belongs to the estimated count. The reported count comes from a separate reporting process. Source 6 Source 2

A population rate measures a different exposure from a traffic rate

Deaths per 100,000 people allow countries of different sizes to be compared. A study of risk on a road or for a mode of travel needs distance travelled, trips or another exposure measure. The profiles are a dated baseline for the 2021 to 2030 road safety goals. Source 7

Reported and estimated road deaths in six Southern African countries

The gap between reported and estimated figures varies

Population rates can change how the comparison looks

Confidence intervals describe uncertainty in estimates

A population rate measures a different exposure from a traffic rate

Sources